Tuesday, 20 November, 2018

Are OPEC And Its Allies Producing Too Much Oil?

Saudi Arabia is ready to raise its output to 11 million barrels a day “in the near future” Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih Saudi Arabia is ready to raise its output to 11 million barrels a day “in the near future” Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih
Scott Davis | 26 October, 2018, 04:29

Investors will also be paying close attention to US sanctions on Iranian crude exports, due to kick in from November 4.

An Opec and non-Opec panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee reviewed a technical report, which found countries increased output in September by complying with 111 per cent of pledged supply curbs, the statement issued by Opec said.

However, in his Monday interview with the state TV, Zanganeh said "as I have repeatedly said there is no replacement for Iranian oil in the market".

In the months following the full implementation of sanctions in November, the total volumes of crude oil and condensate coming off the market will become more apparent.

"We will decide if there are any disruptions from supply, especially with the Iran sanctions looming". The International Energy Agency said in a recent report that cutting Iran out of the market could make maintaining global supply "very challenging." Elsewhere, gold has climbed to a three-month high.

In relevant remarks earlier this month, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi said the country has launched talks with other nations and already formulated the necessary mechanisms to foil the United States attempts at bringing Iran's oil exports to zero with new sanctions.




While lower supply from Iran and Venezuela and a thinning global spare capacity can be price-positive in the short term, "given the negative impact of the current dollar strength, rising U.S. interest rates and trade wars, we believe that the global economy is not able to cope with runaway oil prices", Hansen says. "We saw strong demand for our crudes in the third quarter and we have increased our production accordingly", he said.

Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10 million barrels per day.

On Tuesday, Zangeneh reiterated Iran's position that neither Saudi Arabia nor Russian Federation can replace Iranian oil. Also, OPEC's September output was 850,000 barrel per day above where it was in May, not including Congo, while Russia's production in September is up 390,000 barrel per day from May, according to Platts survey data.

"We export as much as two barrels for any barrel that disappeared from Iran recently". A Bloomberg survey of analysts has estimated the increase at 3.7 million barrels.

Uncertainty over future Iranian exports remains high. In 2019, US crude oil production is expected to rise by 1 million barrels per day.

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